Monday, 24 November 2008

Live blogging the Pre Budget Report

4.35pm Same old Tories: Osborne believes he knows more than John Maynard Keynes about economic stimulus. Tories would send UK industry to the wall, make the recession deeper and longer lasting. And they've also announced their opposition to an increase in National Insurance for the very wealthiest. This speech could have been delivered by John Major or Norman Lamont during the last Tory recession of 1990-1994.

4.33pm Osborne is just absurd. He's now comparing the UK with Japan - which borrowed more than 100% of GDP in the last decade. Even with our increased short-term borrowing, our borrowing as a proportion of GDP is massively lower than neighbouring economies including France and Germany.

4.29pm Osborne is now attacking the VAT reduction which his own, far more experienced former Chancellor Kenneth Clarke supported on Newsnight a few days ago. As I wrote earlier today, watching a Conservative oppose tax cuts is a truly bizarre phenomenon.

4.28pm George Osborne is reading a script that doesn't fit with today's announcement. It suits the Tory Party to pretend that the global recession is only hitting the UK but it just isn't true and it just won't wash. If they don't understand this basic fact, they can't possibly have the ideas to fix the problems. It's why the Prime Minister is leading the world's major economies while the Tories want to re-run the failed Thatcherite policies of the 1980s and 1990s.

4.26pm OK, that's the Statement over, and while George Osborne is squeeking away in response, let's summarise what's happening: VAT will be cut from 17.5% to 15% from Monday; except for alcohol, petrol and tobacco. National Insurance rates will increase by 0.5% and a new 45% Income Tax rate for the top 1% if Labour is re-elected at the next election but not before.

And there will be much more help for pensioners, families, children, and small businesses.

4.24pm One-off payments for Pensioners and children with difficulties on top of the Christmas Bonus of £70 for individuals and £120 for couples.

4.22pm Announcements coming thick and fast: big increases in Child Tax Credit, Pension Credits, the Pension, Child Benefit - and the changes will come in from January, not the start of the next financial year in January.

4.20pm Help for savers: a new Savings Gateway where the Government will add 50p for every £1 saved - scheme will run with major banks and the Post Office.

4.19pm Vehicle Excise Duty bands will still be introduced. In 2009, rates will increase by a maximum of £5. In 2010, we will increase the duty by a maximum of £30, while less polluting cars will see NO INCREASE or a reduction of up to £30.

4.17pm Helping people back to work: careers advice in the workplace before people are made redundant will be expanded to every single worker - not just the largest employers. Extra help to prevent those experiencing a temporary job loss becoming long-term unemployed will be worth £1.2billion.

4.15pm More affordable homes: investment in new affordable homes to rent will be more than doubled, adding £775million to the existing £700million budget announced in the Spring. Absolutely critical announcement.

4.11pm Help for home owners. Last month we recapitalised the banks; this month we will guarantee - ie underwrite - certain new mortgages for a temporary period. New council to monitor lending and borrowing by major lenders. Repossession must be the last resort: there will be a three month period between the last repayment made and any repossession action is commenced. Much more free legal and debt advice announced.

4.10pm £100 million extra for extra home insulation. Labour tripled cold weather payments in the Budget this Spring. Government will force energy companies to put households on cheaper tariffs if the companies have not done so voluntarily by the end of the year.

4.09pm Economic slowdown should not jeopardise efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Reform of Air Passenger Duty: new 4- band APD system with those who travel further will pay more. Seems sensible to me.

4.06pm Total package for small business equates to £7billion

4.05pm Two more measures to help Businesses: increase in Corporation Tax deferred and change to accounting rules to allow business to offset losses of up to £50,000 against previous five years' profits.

4.02pm Help for small businesses: exemption from business rates for businesses with empty properties. Change to tax payment schedules on all taxes, not just Business Rates to enable businesses to spread their repayments as they can afford. Businesses also need help with loans as Banks have tightened their lending: £4bn deal with the European Investment Bank to pass onto businesses. £1bn small business credit scheme announced.

4.00pm With Labour, the UK Budget will be back in balance by 2015.

3.59pm Duty on Petrol, Alcohol and Tobacco will be increased to offset the VAT reduction.

3.58pm National Insurance will increase by 0.5%, but no-one earning less than £22,000 will pay any NI contributions. New 45% higher Income Tax rate will be introduced for those on £150,000 or more - 1% of all UK households.

3.57pm Temporary tax cut from May for basic rate taxpayers who were hurt by the abolition of the 10p tax rate will be made permanent - and increased to £145 per year.

3.56pm VAT to be cut to 15% for a year, coming into force next Monday. Retailers urged to pass this £12billion tax cut on immediately.

3.55pm £3billion of capital spending brought forward to improve motorways, affordable housing, energy efficiency and modernising primary and secondary schools. This is investment brought forward.

3.52pm Government will find £5billion of efficiency savings from public services, on top of over £30 billion in the past five years. We will increase spending on public services to £286 billion.

3.47pm Borrowing will increase this year to £78 billion and then £118 billion next year, but then fall to £105 billion in 2010, then £87b, £70b, and £54 billion in 2014. This represents a rise in debt to 57% next year, before rapidly falling back. Borrowing is backed by the CBI, IoD and the IMF, among others.

3.46pm Debt will be repaid by 2015/2016, which will enable us to continue investing in public services.

3.44pm Chancellor now setting out the framework how the borrowing is fully costed and will be repaid. Labour has cut borrowing down to 36%. The extra borrowing be proposed will amount to between 0.5% and 1% of Britain's GDP.

3.43pm Here's the choice between Labour and Conservative: the Tories will let families go to the wall; Labour will borrow to make this downturn as short and shallow as possible.

3.41pm IMF forecasts first slow down among all industrialised nations since 1945. Output will fall in the first two quarters of next year by between 0.75 and 1.25% but then begin growing again because of the action to be outlined today; Inflation will be just 0.5% by the end of next year.

3.38pm The UK has the highest employment leves ever. Benefit claimant counts are 2 million below the last Conservative Government's double-recession. Government Debt among the lowest of the industrialised world. And we have doubled investment in public services. The Chancellor says this shows Labour DID fix the roof while the sun was shining - we fixed the roofs of schools, hospitals and council homes.

3.37pm No British investor has lost any money from the banking crisis thanks to Labour government action. What would have happened had we followed the Conservative plan of not stepping in to rescue Northern Rock?

3.33pm Labour Government will continue to lead the global community next year when we chair the G20 group of leading industrial nations, building on Gordon Brown's international leadership. Highlights issue of Crown Territories, which offer lower tax rates but the Bank of England cannot be the lender of last resort for such territories.

3.32pm The Chanceller is setting out the global economic context - "an unprecedented global crisis". Conservative MPs don't seem to have realised that the whole global economic crisis was triggered by massive US Housing problems back in the Summer - where have they been?

3.30pm Here we go!

The Chancellor is going to move his Pre Budget Report - which always used to be called the Autumn Statement - at 3.30pm this afternoon.

I'll be live-blogging the speech, highlighting the key points and what they mean for Putney, London and the country.

By the way, the live blog will be added to this particular post, rather than lots of separate posts, so keep refreshing your browser to keep up to date.

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